SYSTEM CONTRACT
SPACEBET v0.5.0
TARGET MARKET
KALSHI KXHIGH / KXLOW
STATUS
LIVE TAPE COLLECTOR
CAPITAL STATE
GATED (ZERO LIVE ORDERS)
RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS: Can a statistical market maker on daily temperature prediction markets clear exchange fees, markout toxicity, and professional competition with verified mathematical edge?
QUANTITATIVE FINANCE FLUTTER / DART HARNESS NWS & KALSHI WS API
LIVE HARNESS INTERFACE

Telemetry Dashboard & Market Glance

FLUTTER RESPONSIVE UI
SpaceBet Live Glance HUD Dashboard
1. HUD INSTRUMENT SCREEN

Live Telemetry HUD

Real-time orderbook ladder, telemetry orb status indicator, spread metrics, and live stream connectivity bit.

SpaceBet Timeline & Forecast View
2. TIMELINE & FORECAST

Temperature Distribution

Point-in-time NWS NBM/METAR forecast overlay mapped against historical Kalshi orderbook tick snapshots.

SpaceBet Collector Health Telemetry
3. INFRASTRUCTURE HEALTH

Collector & SQLite Telemetry

100ms batched SQLite disk writes, Litestream S3 replication state, WebSocket sequence gap tracking, and VPS alerts.

TARGET LIQUIDITY
$1.3M+
Miami Daily High Volume
CALIBRATION METRIC
CRPS
Continuous Prob. Score
TOXICITY HORIZONS
1m / 5m / 15m
Event Mean Markouts
STORAGE REPLICATION
Litestream
ISO-Week SQLite → S3
VALIDATION ARCHITECTURE

Strict Numeric Validation Gates

To prevent self-deception in backtesting, trading code is strictly locked until two quantitative gates pass on archived PROD tape.

GATE 1: TOXICITY & LIQUIDITY 30 DAYS PROD TAPE

Replays tape under 4 mechanical quote rules. Fills are marked out at T+1m, T+5m, and T+15m against event distribution mean drift. Passes only if net P&L clears >$15/day after markout degradation.

GATE 2: CRPS CALIBRATION ≥ 300 RESOLVED DAYS

Scores forecast distributions against market-implied ladder probabilities using Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Evaluated pooled AND per-city (winning in Dallas does not authorize capital in Miami).

SECURITY & DATA RIGOR

Infrastructure & Security Controls

Zero-Balance Key Provisioning

Kalshi API keys grant full account access. The collector VPS holds keys for a dedicated, zero-balance account. If the server is compromised, zero trading capital is exposed.

Point-in-Time Data Honesty

fetch_timestamp (when our machine received the packet) is the only legal join key for backtests. Model cycle times are metadata; assuming zero cycle lag fabricates illegal edge.

Litestream Replication & ISO-Week DBs

SQLite database files rotate on ISO-8601 week boundaries (spacebet_YYYY_Www.db). Continuous streaming replication to S3 via Litestream with zero-downtime container restarts.

SYSTEM DATA PIPELINE

Collector Execution Architecture

DART SERVER & SQLITE
1. INGESTION

WebSocket & REST Ingestion

24/7 WebSocket connection tracking sequence gaps. Auto-triggers REST resnapshots on gap detection and batches SQLite writes every 100ms.

2. ORACLE PIPELINE

NWS Bulletin & METAR Ingestion

Fetches NWS NBM text bulletins (NBS/NBE) and METAR station observations with explicit gap rows when NWS endpoints 500.

3. EVALUATOR REPLAY

Tape Replay & Gate Testing

Pure reader evaluators replay archived SQLite tapes at full temperature ladder level to evaluate Gate 1 toxicity and Gate 2 CRPS scores.

ROTHENBERG INDUSTRIES • QUANT & IOT SYSTEMS

Need High-Reliability Data Pipelines or Real-Time Telemetry?

We design deterministic data ingestion pipelines, real-time Flutter telemetry HUDs, and fault-tolerant system architectures.